By Adam Baugh and Alex Hayes | Point of View
In Arizona, dealing with water scarcity is a way of life. Through feats of engineering, political deal making, and forward-thinking policies, the state has fostered sustainable growth and enabled economic activity to blossom in the desert.
Though that remains more true today than ever, recent events have contributed to a misunderstanding about the state’s water future and its impact on development.
On June 1, Gov. Katie Hobbs announced the results of the latest groundwater model prepared by the Arizona Department of Water Resources (ADWR) for the Phoenix Active Management Area. The new model, which is intended to forecast the amount of available groundwater over a 100-year period, found that 4-million-acre feet of the simulated groundwater demand would be unmet.
As a result, Gov. Hobbs announced that ADWR would no longer issue new certificates of assured water supply in the AMA for development relying on groundwater.
Predictably, the result was confused hysteria. National media with little knowledge or experience with the intricacies of Western water law unleashed sensational headlines; the New York Times said “Arizona Limits Construction Around Phoenix as Its Water Supply Dwindles” while the Los Angeles Times wrote “Water Concerns Prompt New Limits on Growth in Arizona.” And our favorite from The Hill: “Arizona Seeks to Avert Groundwater Disaster.” What these stories lacked in nuance they made up for in gusto.
Baugh & Hayes: national water headlines have economic consequences in Arizona
Unfortunately, water headlines have consequences and many national developers, home builders, and lenders were suddenly wondering whether they should be worried about Arizona.
This forced economic development professionals in the Phoenix metropolitan area to scramble to assure businesses looking at the region that we do, in fact, have ample water to support continued growth and development. Though some areas on the outer edges of the metro area will likely need to secure new water resources, the vast majority of municipalities in the Phoenix AMA have been designated by ADWR as having sufficient water to support development within their service areas.
There are also tens of thousands of new homes that have already been approved but have yet to be built. These are not affected by the governor’s announcement.
The reality is the announcement from Gov. Hobbs is an example of Arizona’s progressive water management policies working as intended. The “unmet demand” represented just 4% of the projected demand over the 100-year period. There are many variables that will impact the actual groundwater use, including the timing of when approved developments actually come to fruition. There are also opportunities to augment our water supplies with new surface water resources and reclaimed water (i.e. treated wastewater).
There is much work to be done to ensure a successful water future, same as ever. But Arizona continues to be a national leader in water management and sustainability. We won’t hold our breath for that headline.
Editor’s note: Adam Baugh is a land use and zoning attorney and partner at Withey Morris Baugh PLC; Alex Hayes is a land use and zoning attorney at the same law firm.
