On heels of Federal Reserve move, housing market report offers insight
By Terrance Thornton | Digital Free Press
Walt Danley Christie’s International Real Estate is releasing its housing market findings through analysis of The Cromford Market Index as Realtors ponder the next chapter of Arizona real estate.
The report comes on the heels of the Federal Reserve’s June 15 decision to raise interest rates by 0.75% — which Walt Danley of Walt Danley Christie’s International Real Estate says the goal is to slow down the rapid increase of property values.
“I think it is safe to say that the rate hike will have the Fed’s desired effect on the housing market — it will slow it down,” he told the Arizona Digital Free Press. “The luxury market is impacted less by interest rates than the production home market, but it is still a factor. The stock market’s performance plays a bigger role in the luxury space.”
Mr. Danley explains real estate values and market projections are on the move.
“We’ve been in a seller’s market since the summer of 2018 and an even stronger surge in favor of sellers in June 2020,” he said. “The market is changing rapidly, more rapidly than most people anticipated. Demand is dropping, supply is rising, and with the increase in interest rates, money is getting more expensive to borrow. In summary, all these factors combined with inflation will cause significant cooling of the housing market.”
Across the Walt Danley Christie’s firm, representatives there say, real estate brokers are discussing concerns over the cooling market.
“Inventory is growing at an astonishing rate and prices are softening faster than anticipated,” Mr. Danley pointed out. “If these trends continue, our market will be in balance by the end of the summer. If you have sellers thinking of waiting until the fall to put their home on the market, you will want to share this intel with them.”
A brief data dive
Data provided by the Cromford Market Index shows in May 2022 single-family housing numbers across Maricopa County look like this:
- Closed Sales are down 11% from May 2021
- New Homes Closed are down 12% from May 2021
- Resale Homes Closed are down 11% from May 2021
- Median Sales Price was $490,000 – up 24.8% from May 2021
- New Home Median Sales Price was $500,490 – up 27.8% from May 2021
- Re-Sale Median Sales Price was $486,000 – up 23.7% from May 2021
Taking the plunge
Dub Dellis, chief operating officer at Walt Danley Christie’s International Real Estate, explains the Cromford Market Index taking a plunge over 50% is not a positive sign for the marketplace.
Mr. Dellis points out much of the index plunge has occurred over the last nine weeks.
“If the next two months look like the last two months, then we could hit the balanced zone for the CMI between 90 and 110 during August. Readings below 90 denote a buyer’s market,” he said.
The decision at the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates is creating momentum for the downward projections of the housing market, Mr. Dellis explains. But he also offers interest rates are not as a paramount concern as recent volatility on Wall Street.
“The market is changing rapidly, more rapidly than most people anticipated,” he said.
The change in macroeconomic factors over the last 90 days is offering interesting trend regarding housing stock, Mr. Dellis said.
“It is no surprise that demand should fall after a sudden and substantial increase in mortgage rates,” he said. “Normally, this would cause a slow increase in supply. However, we have witnessed a fast increase in supply due to a significant increase in the arrival of new listings. People are choosing to exit the market — sell a property without buying a replacement. Those with homes that they do not actually need are likely to be the first to sell.”
What is the bottom line? Mr. Dellis offers the Phoenix metropolitan housing market is set to continue to cool as the scorching summer months take hold in the Valley of the Sun, but inventory levels are improving.
“The big unknown is whether this increase in new listings is a short-term blip or the start of a much more important trend,” states Dellis. “The supply increase is only 6 weeks old, but it is getting stronger each week. The key takeaway is selling for slightly less is better than not selling at all.”